What is a safe withdrawal rate (SWR)?

A safe withdrawal rate is the percentage of your portfolio you can withdraw annually without running out of money. The widely cited 4% rule suggests withdrawing 4% in year one, then adjusting for inflation each year. This has historically sustained portfolios for 30+ years.

What happens if I retire during a bear market?

Retiring into a downturn creates sequence-of-returns risk — early losses combined with withdrawals can permanently deplete your portfolio. Reducing withdrawals in the first few years, keeping 1-2 years of cash, or using a flexible withdrawal strategy can mitigate this risk.

Should I use a fixed or flexible withdrawal strategy?

Flexible strategies (reducing withdrawals in down years, increasing in up years) significantly improve portfolio survival rates. A common approach is the guardrails method: cut spending by 10% if your portfolio drops 20%, and allow a raise if it grows 20% above your starting value.

How long should my retirement portfolio last?

Plan for at least 30 years, or longer if retiring early. A 40-year-old retiring at FIRE needs a 50+ year plan. Longer timeframes require lower withdrawal rates — typically 3.25-3.5% for 40-50 year horizons versus 4% for 30 years.

Safe Withdrawal Rate Calculator & Stress Test

Testing Your Withdrawal Strategy

The "safe withdrawal rate" determines how much you can spend from your portfolio each year without running out of money. The classic 4% rule suggests withdrawing 4% of your starting balance, then adjusting for inflation annually. But market conditions vary, and what worked historically may not work in the future.

This calculator stress-tests your retirement plan across three scenarios: a normal market (7% average returns), a prolonged bear market (4% returns), and an extreme stress test (2% returns). If your money survives the stress test, you have a robust plan. If it only survives normal conditions, consider reducing spending or increasing savings before retiring.

Adjust your inputs to see how changes affect your survival odds. Even small reductions in annual spending can dramatically extend portfolio longevity. The goal isn't to minimize spending but to find a sustainable balance between enjoying retirement and ensuring your money lasts.

Retirement Withdrawal Calculator

Testing Your Withdrawal Strategy

Your Inputs

Survival Verdict: High Risk

How Long Your Money Lasts

End Balance (4% scenario)

Withdrawal Ratio

Continue Your Journey

Financial Independence Calculator

Portfolio Builder

Income Target Calculator